Estonian expert: statements alone are not enough to deter Russia

Igor Gretsky, a researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia, says statements alone are not enough to deter Russia. He was commenting on European politicians' reactions to the diesel fuel supply deal that US President Donald Trump struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week. Renewed pressure from Washington on Kyiv has added to the reaction.

Unexpected critics

Statements by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the stance of the Baltic leaders were predictable. But Trump's actions were also criticised by less expected voices. Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, who had earlier been highly sceptical about aid to Kyiv, said the White House had betrayed Europe with its deal with the Kremlin. In Gretsky's view, this shows how serious the situation is.

Words against sabotage

Gretsky noted that Estonia and the other Baltic states have long called for action. He also cited former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who argues that Russia is waging war not only against Ukraine but against all of Europe. According to the expert, Russia's ambitions reach far beyond Ukraine. If kinetic action, sabotage and arson are met only with words, deterrence does not work.

Limits to Babis's room for manoeuvre

Gretsky believes Babis can afford populist statements only until the defence and security situation becomes extremely serious. He recalled that when the Russian authorities published their list of so-called unfriendly states, the United States and Czechia were among the first on it.

The expert said Trump is currently seen as a tactical partner of the Kremlin, but Moscow still regards the United States as a strategic adversary. In his view, Moscow will do everything to drive a wedge as deep as possible between the US and Europe, and sees Trump's presidency as offering good opportunities to do so.