Harri Tiido: Comparing the Present Era with the Past
Historian Harri Tiido, referencing Odd Arne Westad's book, compares the current geopolitical situation to the pre-World War I era, highlighting mutual accusations among great powers, rising nationalism, and trade wars.
Harri Tiido, analyzing today's world, draws on Yale historian Odd Arne Westad's 2026 book "The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict and Warnings From History". He notes that several great powers are competing for dominance across regions and fields such as nuclear technology, artificial intelligence, and space exploration. Trade, once freer, is becoming increasingly constrained, and trade wars are emerging between major states.
According to Westad, the world today resembles the period from the late 19th century to 1914, when great powers clashed, nationalism and populism rose, and many felt globalization had not benefited them. Protectionism grew, tariffs were increasingly used, and people more frequently blamed citizens of other countries for their problems.
Tiido emphasizes an alarming similarity: the accumulation of mutual accusations among great powers, especially between the US and China. He also notes the decline of US hegemony: China's technological development, Russia's assertiveness, and India's confident behavior signal a new order. Before WWI, British hegemony was declining, and leaders without wartime experience tended to see war as a solution.
Geopolitically, Westad compares China to early 20th-century Germany—a rising power seeking great-power status. The US is the new Britain—a declining hegemon unwilling to bear the costs of its status. Russia resembles Austria-Hungary—a crumbling empire trying to remain relevant. India is like France at the time, dealing with internal cohesion and regional standing.
Tiido adds that current US military activity against Iran alongside Israel echoes past mistakes: a lack of clear strategic goals and unpredictability, including President Trump's behavior. China's Xi Jinping, like Kaiser Wilhelm, disdains democrats and activists, and the CCP elite behaves like Prussian Junkers. Putin has turned Russia away from the West and seeks empire, but his vague vision is dangerous.
Overall, the world is moving toward international politics unseen since the early 20th century. Westad concludes that alternatives to war are needed.
