Galeotti: Chances of Peace in Ukraine Are Higher Than Ever, but for Bad Reasons
Russia expert Mark Galeotti says peace in Ukraine is closer than ever, but that any deal would be unjust. The fate of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk region could prove decisive.
The chances of reaching peace in Ukraine are higher now than at any earlier point, but for reasons that do not favour Ukraine, according to British Russia expert Mark Galeotti. He said this in an interview with Finnish public broadcaster Yle during a visit to Finland, and stressed that such a peace would not be just.
Galeotti cited several factors. In his view, Russia does not want to continue the war, Ukraine's position is increasingly desperate, Europe is losing patience and is unwilling to keep funding the war from its own pocket, and America does not much care.
Peace efforts have intensified in recent days. On Tuesday in Oslo, US special envoy Steve Witkoff met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and then held a three-hour meeting in Saint Petersburg with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Talk of peace negotiations involving the US, Russia and Ukraine followed.
Pressure on all sides
The expert noted that Ukraine's position is getting harder as Russia steps up attacks on the energy system and other civilian targets. He pointed to polls showing most Ukrainians support negotiations, with many ready to accept territorial concessions for the sake of peace. Within Russia, too, a public debate has emerged over the past year that the war cannot go on forever. Galeotti said such statements could not be heard without the Kremlin's approval, and he believes Moscow understands that a protracted war causes economic damage and raises political risks.
European leaders keep pledging support for Ukraine "for as long as it takes", yet pressure is growing to strengthen their own public sectors and defence capacity. Galeotti believes many leading politicians privately wonder how to save money on Ukraine aid. After the war, Europe will bear responsibility for a large share of reconstruction, and the longer the war lasts, the costlier that will be. In the US, attention is fixed on the upcoming midterm elections, and Galeotti said Donald Trump ultimately thinks only about what benefits him personally at a given moment.
The fate of two cities
According to Galeotti, the key question is control of Donetsk region. He said the war comes down to a relatively small area and two cities reduced to ruins, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. He believes Putin's aim is now to seize all of Donbas, meaning Donetsk and Luhansk regions, after which he could declare victory. Zelensky does not want to give up cities that Russia has failed to capture, and Galeotti said he does not know whether he could do so.
Security guarantees for Ukraine remain the other central issue. A just peace would require Russians to leave the occupied territories, so Galeotti does not believe in one. The most important thing, he said, is to stop the bloodshed and secure Ukraine's future as an independent state.
Galeotti heads Mayak Intelligence, a research and consulting firm he founded in London, and previously advised the British Foreign Office. In 2022 Russia banned him from entering the country indefinitely.
