France’s Appeal Court to Rule on Le Pen Conviction – Presidential Run at Stake

France’s appeal court is set to rule on Tuesday on the conviction of far-right leader Marine Le Pen and other members of her National Rally party for misusing European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016. If the court upholds the 2025 conviction, which imposed a five-year ban from holding office and house arrest, Le Pen – one of the most prominent far-right figures in Europe and a frontrunner in polls for the 2027 presidential race – will likely be unable to run.

Last Wednesday, Le Pen stated that even if the court only upholds the order to wear an electronic bracelet, she will not stand. “If I can be a candidate, I will be a candidate, provided that I am able to campaign,” the 57-year-old told LCI channel. “Because if I’m allowed to be a candidate but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely, then you understand that wouldn’t be possible.”

What was Le Pen convicted of? In March 2025, a Paris criminal court ruled that Le Pen was at the center of “a fraudulent system” used by her party to siphon 2.9 million euros ($3.32m) from EU Parliament funds. The court also fined the National Rally party 2 million euros ($2.29m), half of which was suspended.

She was accused of using funds meant for parliamentary assistants’ salaries to pay party staff. EU politicians receive funds for expenses including assistant salaries but cannot use them for party activities. Le Pen and her party deny the allegations, arguing the funds were used legitimately and that prosecutors applied an overly narrow definition of a parliamentary assistant’s role.

What are the political implications? The initial verdict imposed a five-year ban from elected office and two years of house arrest with an electronic bracelet. With France’s presidential election first round on April 18, 2027, and a run-off on May 2, Le Pen cannot run if she loses the appeal.

The far-right leader has pledged to fight if barred. “If I cannot be a candidate, I will make use of every available avenue of appeal,” Le Pen said. She could then appeal to France’s highest court, the Court of Cassation, which checks legal correctness rather than facts. That process could take about six months.

If allowed to run, Le Pen is seen as a top contender to succeed centrist President Emmanuel Macron in 2027. If not, her 30-year-old protege Jordan Bardella would likely run instead.

What could the Court of Appeal decide? It could overturn Le Pen’s conviction, but legal experts say that is unlikely given the lower court’s findings. Alternatively, it could uphold the conviction, including the five-year ban, ruling her out of the race and paving the way for Bardella. A third possibility is upholding the conviction but softening the sentence – if the ban is lifted or reduced to two years or less, Le Pen could still run for president.