French appeals court ruling puts Marine Le Pen's 2027 presidential bid in jeopardy

The long-awaited decision from the Paris Court of Appeal will determine whether Marine Le Pen, the figurehead of France's far-right National Rally (RN), can stand in the 2027 presidential elections. Le Pen is appealing a 2025 conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds to pay party employees, which resulted in a five-year ban from holding public office.

While an acquittal is considered unlikely, the court could reduce her penalty, allowing her to run. Alternatively, a renewed conviction in line with prosecution demands — four years in prison (one year with electronic monitoring), a €100,000 fine, and a five-year ban — would effectively end her presidential ambitions.

Le Pen has run for president three times before, and her popularity has risen significantly since her last attempt in 2022. Polls show her as the clear front-runner for both rounds of the upcoming election. In February, she stated that if the prosecution's demands were upheld, she would be prevented from running.

Legal experts believe Le Pen's guilt was proven during the appeals trial and judges are likely to follow the prosecution's recommendations. However, intense political pressure surrounds the case, especially after the "Lyhanna affair" — the brutal murder of an 11-year-old girl — which has fuelled accusations of a politicised judiciary.

Should Le Pen be barred, her protégé Jordan Bardella, 30, is expected to become the RN's candidate. Bardella has already positioned himself as a presidential contender, making international trips, including a visit to Poland to meet conservative leaders, and signalling a shift on pension policy. He has occasionally polled slightly ahead of Le Pen.

Supporters hope the judges will either allow Le Pen to run or impose a shorter ban, but many have accepted that Bardella may lead the party into the 2027 race. The verdict will be momentous not only for the election but also for France's long-term political landscape.