France's 2027 presidential election: Can the far-right National Rally win without Le Pen?
Marine Le Pen's conviction for embezzling EU funds jeopardizes her 2027 candidacy, but the party is considering Jordan Bardella as a replacement. Experts differ on RN's chances, citing Bardella's social media popularity and lack of political experience.
With Marine Le Pen's candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in doubt due to a conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds, the far-right National Rally (RN) is asking whether it can win without its figurehead. Le Pen was convicted in March 2025 and barred from running for office for five years. Her appeal verdict is due on July 7.
The party's only considered replacement is Jordan Bardella, 30, who became RN president in 2022. Bardella has used his TikTok savvy to attract younger voters and led the party to a historic win in the 2024 European elections. He even polls slightly ahead of Le Pen. However, experts note his inexperience: he joined the party in 2012 and has no professional background outside politics. Baptiste Roger-Lacan, a researcher, warns that Bardella is popular on TikTok but the party lacks infrastructure to convert digital support into votes.
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon polls at 13–13.5% but is France's most disliked political figure. Centrist and right-wing candidates like Édouard Philippe (13–14.5%) and Gabriel Attal (8.5–9.5%) are seen as greater threats. Thibault Muzergues believes an RN presidency is inevitable, but Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations cautions that campaigning is unpredictable, recalling Emmanuel Macron's rise in 2017. She says it's too early to draw firm conclusions: "Anything could happen."
