Could El Niño leave the Atlantic without a single hurricane this year?
For the first time in over 30 years, no hurricane formed in the Atlantic during September, and meteorologists point to El Niño as the main cause. There is a growing chance 2026 could become the first hurricane-free Atlantic season of the satellite era.
No hurricane has formed in the Atlantic this September, normally the busiest month of the season — the first time this has happened in more than three decades. With only two months of the season remaining, there is a growing possibility that 2026 could become the first Atlantic hurricane season in the satellite era to produce no hurricanes at all.
The role of El Niño
The main driver behind this unusual lull is El Niño, a climate pattern that typically suppresses storm activity in the Atlantic while fueling a far more active season in the eastern Pacific. Back in May, with a very strong El Niño forecast, the US National Hurricane Center predicted between eight and 14 named storms for the season, of which three to six were expected to strengthen into hurricanes and one to three into major hurricanes.
El Niño is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that can disrupt weather patterns worldwide. During an El Niño event, shifting wind patterns increase wind shear at higher altitudes over the Atlantic — strong winds blowing at different speeds and directions tear apart developing thunderstorms before they can organize into tropical storms or hurricanes.
A busier Pacific
The Pacific, by contrast, tends to see heightened activity during El Niño because sea surface temperatures there run much warmer, combined with more favorable wind conditions. This extra warmth gives storms the energy they need to develop into tropical storms and hurricanes. This year, temperature records in a key stretch of the central-eastern Pacific have already surpassed those set during the very strong El Niño of 2015.
So far this season, the Pacific basin has produced 17 named storms, nine of which became hurricanes, seven of them major hurricanes. Measured by accumulated cyclone energy, the Pacific season is running about two and a half times more active than normal for this point in the year. Forecasters expect El Niño to keep strengthening, with its peak likely to arrive in November or December.
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