Expert: Trump Lacks the Power to Force Ukraine to Capitulate

Estonian security expert Ilmar Raag said on the ETV public broadcaster's programme "Ringvaade" that US President Donald Trump does not have the power to force Ukraine to capitulate. In his assessment, Trump's unpredictable behaviour and disruptions to the Starlink satellite communications system complicate Ukraine's position, but no major catastrophe is expected immediately.

Background

Trump has recently pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to make peace. Last week he signed a diesel fuel deal with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, seeking to regain popularity at home before the US midterm elections. He has also threatened to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine and partly restricted its access to Starlink. During a visit to the United Kingdom, Zelenskyy told journalist Piers Morgan he felt betrayed by Trump.

Starlink and intelligence

Raag noted that American intelligence matters but does not do everything. Starlink serves several functions in drone warfare: units can still talk to each other, and headquarters can contact front-line teams operating drones. That, he said, is about half of what the system does. The problem arises if the more important functions, provided by Starshield, fail, because they affect Ukraine's most effective drones.

He said it is impossible to know whether the disruptions were accidental or deliberate, but suggested they could be a unilateral action by a smaller group, since Ukrainians receive missile warnings too late after Starlink stops working. US statements are contradictory, and Trump could change his mind again.

Europe and the United States

Raag said Trump is influenced most by his approval ratings, fuel prices and European leaders: when Europe gives a clear "no", Trump returns to earlier positions. He expects Trump to lose much of his power after the midterms, and cited surveys showing most Americans see Putin as the aggressor and support Ukraine.

The expert added that the war has escalated since August, when it became clear Ukraine lacks effective air defences against ballistic missiles, so a hard winter is ahead. Still, Ukrainians have spent years learning, and say that while they curse Trump and Putin, they will survive.