Experts: Deadly Russian strikes reflect stalled battlefield progress

Experts say Russia's deadly strikes on Ukraine come as its battlefield gains have slowed, with front lines largely unchanged in recent months. Russia has lately been stepping up its long-range missile and drone strikes on cities, most notably Kyiv, in order to wear down Ukrainian morale, while diverting attention from the fact that it was able to take an average of just one square kilometer of Ukrainian territory per day in June this year – just a sixteenth of the daily total it took in the same month in 2025.

While marginal gains have been seen by Russia over the past month on all fronts, losses are up several-fold compared with a year ago, noted Gert Kaju, head of the defense readiness department at the Ministry of Defense. "As an example, in June 2026 Russia managed to seize around 30 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, which amounts to roughly one square kilometer of progress per day. By comparison, a year ago, in June 2025, Russia captured about 500 square kilometers, meaning its advance averaged around 16 square kilometers per day," Kaju said.

Security expert Raivo Vare said the strikes are for Russian domestic consumption while its forces are otherwise bogged down. "This shows that they have not actually managed to achieve any meaningful initiative or major strategic momentum as part of the broader offensive that reportedly began in the spring. The situation has stabilized to some extent, but now they need to demonstrate strategic initiative publicly, including to their own domestic audience," Vare noted.

Rainer Saks, another security expert, called the attacks desperate. "Militarily, it cannot inflict any meaningful damage on Ukraine. Russia is simply wasting these missiles, using them to kill people," he said.

In response to this week's deadly strikes on Kyiv, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said she would propose sanctions against many more institutions and companies which shore up Russia's military-industrial sector. Vare said this proposal represented a more significant breakthrough than previous measures. "Up to now, sanctions have been introduced periodically in packages. But the timing now — where if you commit atrocities, you will pay for them — is, in practical terms, something new in EU policy," Vare said. However, experts note that targeting individual companies or people is unlikely to prove decisive in the war's outcome. Saks stressed: "What really needs to be sanctioned is Russia's mineral production and exports. That is the only measure that can significantly limit Russia's ability to sustain the war over the long term."

Russia launched one of its largest air attacks of the war on Kyiv overnight Wednesday into Thursday, killing at least 30 people and injuring 91 in nearly 12 hours of drone and missile strikes. Ukrainian officials said the sustained, multi-wave assault damaged more than 30 sites, including homes, a kindergarten and a Red Cross warehouse, while Russia said it targeted military infrastructure.