Fuel prices refuse to fall despite rising supply and falling demand
Although global fuel supply is rising and demand is falling, Platts quotations for diesel and gasoline remain more than twice as high as at the start of the year. Russian and possible US export restrictions are compounding the situation.
Global fuel supply is increasing while demand is declining, yet Platts price quotations for diesel and gasoline — which form the basis for fuel prices at Latvian filling stations — remain more than double the level seen at the start of the year, before the conflict in Iran began.
The gap is so large that even if Latvia's diesel excise duty were cut from October 1 not merely to the EU minimum of €330 per 1,000 litres but all the way to zero, diesel prices in Latvia would still exceed January's levels, since September's Platts quotation is nearly twice the excise duty rate itself.
Export restrictions add pressure
Russia has extended its diesel export restrictions through the end of October, and the US administration has reportedly considered banning diesel exports from the country. Record-high diesel prices in the US have already triggered emergency measures: the governor of Texas, the country's largest oil-producing state, declared a state of emergency that suspends emissions standards, raises truck weight limits, and expands the use of red-dyed, tax-exempt diesel on public roads.
EU commissioner: consumers overpaid €100 billion
At a meeting in Dublin, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen stated that in 2026 EU consumers have already overpaid €100 billion for energy without receiving a single additional molecule of gas or oil in return — roughly €200 per EU resident.
Latvian policymakers have no ability to influence these profits, since they flow entirely outside the country's jurisdiction to oil extraction and refining companies and the financial conglomerates that fund them.
At the time of writing, diesel futures had risen by $68.75 per tonne compared to the September 29 closing price — equivalent to a gain of more than 6 cents per litre, roughly matching the excise duty cut set to take effect on October 1.
