Was Brexit Inevitable? Context from Financial Crisis to Refugee Crisis
In an essay published nearly 40 years ago, French writer Emmanuel Carrère argued that counterfactual history stems from an intolerance of inevitability. The article examines key events – the 2008 financial crisis, EU enlargement and Russian aggression, and the 2015 refugee crisis – that provided the backdrop for the Brexit campaign and referendum.
French author Emmanuel Carrère, in a short essay from about four decades ago, observed that counterfactual history—imaginative stories about what could have been—is driven by a persistent intolerance of inevitability. He noted that many in the 19th century simply could not accept the fact that Napoleon was defeated at Waterloo and exiled to Saint Helena. Carrère urged resistance to the notion that events could not have unfolded differently.
Applying this perspective to Brexit, several key factors stand out. The 2008 financial crisis exposed the euro's vulnerability, lacking the support of a political and fiscal union. EU enlargement eastward directly clashed with Russia's revanchist plans, fully revealed when President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. New freedom of movement highlighted alarming demographic changes, a issue that culminated after the failed Arab Spring and the subsequent refugee crisis of 2015.
It was within this context that the Brexit campaign and referendum took place.
