Brazil's changing working class reshapes the presidential run-off
Brazil holds a presidential run-off on Sunday between left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. Deindustrialisation and the rise of gig work have eroded Lula's traditional base.
Brazil votes on Sunday in the second round of its presidential election, pitting left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round earlier this month, and every first-round winner since 1989 has gone on to become president. Lula's position is threatened by a shift in the country's working class.
From factories to services
Osasco, a municipality in the São Paulo area, was once an industrial hub; shuttered factories have given way to shopping malls and delivery-app tech firms. It backed Lula in 2022 but chose Bolsonaro in the first round this time. Gilberto Almazan, who leads a local metalworkers' union, says metal, chemical and textile plants have vanished and workers are now mostly in services. Many work in the gig economy, driving for Uber, delivering food or running small businesses, and want flexibility rather than the collective action and welfare Lula offered.
Bolsonaro supporters often speak of wanting change, citing frustration with the economy, crime and corruption. Flávio Bolsonaro himself faces corruption accusations, which he denies. He has proposed cutting government spending, ministries and some taxes, while saying he would keep some of Lula's flagship welfare programmes.
Richard Lapper, who has written biographies of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, notes that unemployment fell to a record low and Brazil was removed from the UN Hunger Map, yet people do not feel better off because of higher prices, household debt and high interest rates.
Lula's response
About 33 million people did not vote in the first round, the highest abstention since 1998. Lula's campaign is mobilising students and hundreds of thousands of people at rallies; it claims one São Paulo event drew about a million. The 80-year-old president is also using social media to counter suggestions that he is past his prime.
In Maré, a large Rio de Janeiro favela, Lula still won, and residents praise the minimum wage rise and free essential medicines. Some fear Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organisation could bring security forces into the favela.
The evangelical church, to which about a quarter of Brazilians belong, is also backing Bolsonaro.
