Brazil heads into tight presidential vote between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Brazilians vote Sunday in a presidential election dominated by incumbent Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, with polls pointing to a likely runoff.
Brazil holds presidential, congressional and gubernatorial elections on Sunday, October 4, with the race for the top job centered on two rivals: 80-year-old leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, seeking a fourth and final term, and 45-year-old right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Lula has built his campaign around defending Brazilian sovereignty, warning that pressure from US President Donald Trump threatens the country's independence. Last year Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, citing among other reasons the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, who is now serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election. This year the US added further tariffs and designated Brazil's major drug-trafficking gangs as foreign terrorist organisations shortly after Flávio Bolsonaro visited the White House. Lula has opposed both US moves and, ahead of the vote, released a Portuguese version of Bad Bunny's song about the US colonisation of Hawaii as a cautionary example.
Flávio Bolsonaro has campaigned on hardline security policy and fiscal austerity, calling Lula incompetent and pointing to the high cost of living. His rallies have featured large US flags and inflatable Trump balloons, though Trump has not endorsed him, saying only that he is watching the election closely.
The campaign has been marked by scandal, including an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro over funding for a biopic about his father, financed by jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is tied to one of Brazil's biggest financial scandals. Both camps have waged intense social media battles, amplifying gaffes and rumours, including through AI-generated content.
Twelve candidates are running for president, but only Lula and Bolsonaro are considered to have a realistic chance. Nearly 160 million registered voters will cast ballots, and polls suggest neither candidate will win outright on Sunday, making an October 25 runoff likely.
