Brazil's knife-edge election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro close campaigns ahead of Sunday vote

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his main rival, right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro, closed out their election campaigns on Saturday ahead of Sunday's vote, which polls suggest will be extremely close. The 80-year-old Lula toured Sao Paulo state atop a campaign truck, pledging to defeat the far right and framing the election as a test of Brazil's sovereignty amid pressure from US President Donald Trump. He is seeking a fourth term, which he has described as his last.

Flavio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, led a motorcade of hundreds of motorcycles through the interior of Sao Paulo state in a style reminiscent of his father's rallies, though he rode on a campaign truck rather than a motorcycle himself. Jair Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after losing re-election in 2022.

The Trump factor

A Flavio Bolsonaro victory would add Brazil to a growing list of Latin American countries shifting rightward. Trump has stopped short of endorsing the senator but has said he is watching the election closely. Lula has warned against US interference, and some of his supporters have voiced concern that Washington could treat Brazil as its "backyard."

Scandals dominate the race

The campaign has been marked by deep national division, with policy debates often overshadowed by scandal and personal attacks. It emerged during the race that Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation over the financing of a biopic about his father, bankrolled by a jailed banker tied to one of Brazil's largest financial scandals. Both camps have waged aggressive online campaigns, including the use of AI-generated images to attack opponents.

Polls suggest neither candidate will win outright on Sunday, setting up a likely runoff on October 25, with the two locked in a statistical tie. In 2022, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by just 1.8 percentage points. Beyond the presidency, nearly 160 million registered voters will also elect lawmakers, governors and some senators.