High oil prices cause a temporary dip in global carbon emissions in 2026

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have dipped this year, and high oil prices are the main reason. That is the conclusion of a study published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, whose authors include Corinne Le Quéré. The researchers think the decline is unlikely to last.

Unlike in 2020, when emissions fell during the pandemic, this drop did not come from a broad fall in energy demand. Demand actually grew, but additions of electric vehicles and of solar and wind generation covered almost 70 percent of that growth. Electric vehicles explain only about 20 percent of the decline in oil emissions, so most of it is attributed to high prices.

Growth without rising emissions

Emissions can be broken down into three factors: a country's gross domestic product (GDP), energy use per unit of GDP, and carbon emissions per unit of energy. If growth comes from less energy-intensive industries or a cleaner energy system, emissions need not rise with the economy.

Between 2019 and 2025, 59 countries cut their emissions despite economic growth, even though global emissions rose by 0.8 percent per year. The researchers estimate that without the spread of electric vehicles and solar and wind power, the increase would have been much higher, at 1.9 percent per year.

Peak not yet reached

Using the International Monetary Fund's GDP projections through 2028, the authors extrapolated these trends forward. The results point to continued growth in fossil fuel emissions. Without the oil price shock, emissions would have increased in 2026 as well.

Clean technology is offsetting most of the growth in emissions, but not all of it. The researchers write that if further acceleration of clean technology deployment can be supported, a sustained peak and decline in global CO2 emissions could be a few years away.