Germany's AfD scores historic breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt election

Projections from German broadcaster ARD indicate that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won roughly 44.4 percent of the vote in Sunday's election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt — the party's strongest result since it was founded in 2013 and a sign it has become the dominant political force in the EU's largest economy.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) placed a distant second with 18.5 percent, a steep drop from the 37.1 percent it won in 2021. The CDU has governed the state for 24 years, and party officials have acknowledged a severe defeat.

Uncertain path to power

Whether the AfD can actually form a government remains unclear. If final results match the projections, the party will fall just short of a majority in the state parliament. Attention is turning to the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which is hovering near the 5 percent threshold needed to enter parliament and has signaled willingness to work with the AfD. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel called the outcome a "historic result" and said her party was open to coalition talks, while the AfD's lead candidate in the state, Ulrich Siegmund, declined to say whether he expects to become the region's premier.

Why the AfD surged

The AfD campaigned on deporting migrants, deepening ties with Russia — including restoring school exchange programs — and introducing new child benefits. Polling suggests the result reflected less enthusiasm for AfD policies than voter frustration with mainstream parties: only 9 percent of respondents approved of Merz's performance. Saxony-Anhalt has the lowest average income of any German state, and about 70 percent of surveyed voters said they were seriously worried about rising costs and paying their bills.

The AfD is also leading polls ahead of elections later this month in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and is polling strongly in Berlin, where both regions vote on September 20.